Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead over Donald Trump in the most-cited polls. Are the polls accurate?

 

Mainstream Media polls have been skewed heavily Democrat for decades. Polls are just like any other form of news or commentary, they are skewed in the positive direction of the Democrat candidate. Honesty in polling? You’d think!

A conspiracy theory? Well let’s take a look at a real-world example. A recent Reuters poll

[1] gives Clinton a staggering 10-point lead, 44% to Trump’s 33%. A positive slam-dunk for Clinton. A closer look at the data shows that 713 Democrats were polled to 521 Republicans, and a tiny 189 independent, or swing, voters. 45% of the nation classify themselves as independents.

Are there respectable polls?

Rasmussen is the most respected and historically accurate polling organization in America. They poll a balanced group and they publish all the info on the group, the demographic, ages, times they were called, so many factors, all transparent.

The Rasmussen poll [2] from October 14th, 2016, tells a radically different story, giving Donald Trump a small 2-point lead over Hillary Clinton. Skewed towards Republican perhaps? Not if their polling for a week-prior is anything to go by, where Clinton had a 7-point lead over Trump. Rasmussen is easily the most respected and historically accurate polling organization in the US.

What does this all mean?

With just over 3 weeks to go, and with both candidates within a margin of error of beating the other in the popular vote, this election is still very much up in the air. The overall trend though is in Donald Trump’s favor. Clinton’s constant negative attacks on Trump simply aren’t working, and I wonder at this point if her supporters are simply growing tired of her overwhelming negativity.

If you’re a Trump supporter, you have good reason to be very happy about the current numbers. If you’re a Clinton supporter, you may take refuge in the polling data that’s as corrupt as your candidate, but on November 8th reality is probably not going to be in your favor.

PS. My proof-reader is on vacation. Please use the comments section to alert me to any typos.

 

[1] http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15725[2] http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct06